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COVID-19 and the Indian Economy : Impact and Response
By Niranjan Sahoo , Mukunda Chandra Sahoo

First Published : 2020
ISBN : 9788177085174
Pages : 190
Binding : Hardbound
Size : 5 x 9
Price : US$ 58
ABOUT THE BOOK

With strong macroeconomic fundamentals, the Indian economy was well-placed on trajectory of high growth rate in early 2020 when outbreak of coronavirus epidemic in China was reported. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the epidemic as a pandemic, plunging the world into an unprecedented medical crisis. 

When countrywide lockdown was announced from March 25, 2020, most of the economic activities came to a grinding halt in urban areas. However, rural India continued to be normal in view of the exemption from restrictions allowed to farmers to conduct farming operations, including harvesting and transporting their produce to grain markets with the general conditions of face covering, hand hygiene and social distancing. These exemptions helped to maintain continuity in supply chain, especially in view of harvesting and sowing season.

To deal with the economic challenges caused by the pandemic, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the creation of ‘COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force’ under the Union Finance Minister. Similarly, PM CARES Fund was created to deal with any kind of emergency or distress situation.

On May 12, 2020, the Prime Minister announced Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-reliant India Initiative) which combined relief, policy reforms and fiscal and monetary measures to help businesses and individuals to cope with the situation created by COVID-19 pandemic. A mega package of ` 20 lakh crore (10 percent of GDP) was announced for the purpose.

   India has several strengths that can help mitigate the adverse effects of COVID-induced slowdown. Agricultural sector is vibrant, inflation is under control, foreign exchange reserves (more than US$ 500 billion) are at record level, international crude oil prices are low and a robust social security net is in place. There is, therefore, a silver lining for India to bounce back and a strong case for fast-tracking the pending reforms.

CONTENTS
     
1. Pre- and Post-COVID World Economy
1.1 Pre-COVID World Economy
1.2 Post-COVID World Economy

2. Pre- and Post-COVID Indian Economy
2.1 Pre-COVID Indian Economy
2.2 Post-COVID Indian Economy

3. India’s US$ 5 Trillion Economy Dream Shattered
3.1 Twelve Champion Services Sectors
3.2 Blueprint for the 5 Trillion Dollar Economy

4. Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-reliant India Initiative)
4.1 First Tranche Focused on MSMEs
4.2 Second Tranche for Poor and Middle Class
4.3 Third Tranche for Farming Sector
4.4 Fourth Tranche for Privatization of the Economy
4.5 Fifth Tranche Focused on MGNREGS
4.6 Assessment of Aatmanirbhar Bharat Package

5. Favourable Factors for Indian Economy to Rebound
5.1 The Resilient Agricultural Sector
5.2 Low Crude Oil Prices
5.3 China’s Loss Can be India’s Gain
5.4 Strong Diversified Manufacturing Base
5.5 Demographic Dividend
5.6 Preferred Destination for Investment
5.7 IT and IT-enabled Services
5.8 India Recognized as Economic Powerhouse
5.9 Burgeoning Foreign Exchange Reserves
5.10 Summary of Strengths of the Indian Economy

6. Robust and Resilient Agricultural Sector
6.1 Why is Agricultural Sector Important for India?
6.2 Components of Agriculture and Allied Sectors
6.3 COVID-19 and Agricultural Sector
6.4 Doubling Farmers Income by 2022-23
6.5 Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) in Fertiliser Sector
6.6 Remunerative Minimum Support Prices (MSPs)
6.7 Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna (PMFBY)
6.8 Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN)
6.9 Pradhan Mantri Kisan Maandhan Yojana (PMKMY)

7. Crude Oil Prices and India
7.1 Segments and Stakeholders in Petroleum Industry
7.2 Crude Oil and Petroleum Products
7.3 Natural Gas and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
7.4 Crude Oil: Indigenous Production and Imports
7.5 What Determines Global Crude Oil Prices?
7.6 COVID-19, Worldwide Lockdowns and Fall in Crude Oil Prices
7.7 Impact of Global Crude Oil Prices on India
7.8 Future Scenario

8. Ease of Doing Business in India: Recent Improved Rankings
8.1 Why is it Difficult to Do Business in India?
8.2 World Bank’s Doing Business Report
8.3 Highlights of Doing Business Report, 2020
8.4 Doing Business Ranking of India in Recent Years
8.5 High, Moderate and Low Rank Indicators of India
8.6 Reforms Introduced in India as per Doing Business Reports of World Bank: 2008 to 2020
8.7 Recent Measures to Improve Business Environment in India

9. Infrastructure and Logistics Development
9.1 Infrastructure Services
9.2 Logistics Services and Support

10. Skill Development, Innovations and Entrepreneurship
10.1 Skill Development
10.2 Innovations
10.3 Entrepreneurship

11. Digitization of the Indian Economy
11.1 India and Information Technology (IT) Services
11.2 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, 2019
11.3 India’s E-payment Ranking in Global Survey
11.4 Digital Transactions: India versus Other Countries
11.5 Cyber Security

12. India’s Social Security Net
12.1 Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2019 and India
12.2 Three-tier Universal Security System for the Poor
12.3 LPG and Kerosene for the Poor
12.4 Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS)
12.5 Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyan.
12.6 Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) Programme

13. Role of Government in the Changed Scenario
13.1 Lessons from Financial Crises of 2008
13.2 Fiscal Deficit is not a Sacred Cow
13.3 Effective Public-Private Dialogue
13.4 Electronics: A Grey Area
13.5 Empowerment of Marginalised Groups
13.6 Governance and Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), 2018

14. Challenges Ahead
14.1 Integration of Indian Economy with Global Economy
14.2 Rejection of Decoupling Hypothesis
14.3 Global Economic Crises Are Contagious
14.4 The China Factor
14.5 India’s Falling Competitiveness Ranking

15. Economic Impact of Lockdowns
15.1 Covid-19 and Lockdowns
15.2 Fall in Government Revenues
15.3 Lockdowns and Agricultural Sector
15.4 Low Crude Oil Prices
15.5 China’s Loss Can be India’s Gain
15.6 India’s as Preferred Destination for Foreign Investment
15.7 Diversified Industrial and Infrastructural Base of India

Appendix: Reforms Introduced in India as per Doing Business Reports of World Bank: 2008 to 2020

Bibliography
Index

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
     

Dr. Niranjan Sahoo is Professor of Disaster Management, at Xavier Institute of Social Service (XISS), Ranchi. He is also Advisor, National Productivity Council, Ministry of Industry and Commerce, Government of India. Born in Odisha, he is academically specialized in rural management domain in general and disaster management in particular. In his 20-years of job experience, he initially got a campus placement offer while studying at Visva-Bharati University, Santiniketan by a Germany-based funding agency (EZE, Bonn) located in Calcutta. He was felicitated with Visva-Bharati Snatakattor Upadhi in 1997 at Santiniketan by the then Prime Minister of India Shri I.K. Gujral. He got his Ph.D. degree from Magadh University, Bodhgaya, India.

Professor Sahoo received International Intellectual Award 2010 in an International Conference on “Indo-Thai Friendship Summit and Economic Growth” held in Bangkok, Thailand on December 30, 2010 for outstanding rural development teachings. He has travelled to Nepal, US, Bangladesh, England, Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia, China, France, Switzerland, Thailand, Mongolia, Germany and Mexico for academic purposes. He has to his credit 15 research publications in national and international journals. Besides, he has authored three books, the recent one being annotated by Journal of Economic Literature of Economic Association of America and reviewed by the Prime Minister of India. Being a community member to the UNSDRR, he was part of the United Nations delegation to its global platform held in Mexico (2017), Ulaan Baatar (2018) and in Geneva (2019) along with the Home Minister of India.

Dr. Mukunda Chandra Sahoo is Associate Professor, Department of Hospital Administration, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Bhubaneswar. He did his MBBS from MKCG Medical College, Berhampur and postgraduate studies in hospital administration from All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi. Dr. Sahoo is a hospital administrator with experience in hospital management and has served in various capacities in Indian Army, DRDO and healthcare organisations in the government sector. He is a research guide and examiner for postgraduate studies in hospital administration and has written a number of articles and book chapters on management of hospitals. His exemplary services were duly acknowledged by the Indian Army and DRDO. Currently, he is also Additional Medical Superintendent, AIIMS, Bhubaneshwar.


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